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Updated Bowl Game Projections
OK, we've run down which teams are bowl eligible and which conferences have filled their bowl slots, so the only thing left to ponder are the updated bowl game projections.
So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 8, 2008.
Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule
New Mexico Bowl - San Jose State vs Colorado State
St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida vs Houston
Pioneer Las Vegas - TCU vs Oregon
Eagle Bank Bowl - Virginia vs Navy
R+L Carriers New Orleans - Memphis vs Troy
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia - BYU vs Nevada
Sheraton Hawaii - Hawaii vs Stanford
Motor City - Central Michigan vs Illinois
Meineke Car Care - Cincinnati vs Maryland
Champs Sports - Virginia Tech vs Wisconsin
Emerald - Arizona vs Miami
Independence - Akron vs Florida International
PapaJohns.com - West Virginia vs. Florida Atlantic
Valero Alamo - Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State
Roady's Humanitarian - Boise State vs Boston College
Texas - Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech
Pacific Life Holiday - Cal vs. Missouri
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces - Air Force vs Rice
Brut Sun - Oregon State vs. Nebraska
Gaylord Hotels Music City - Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Insight - Kansas vs. Northwestern
Chick-fil-A - Ole Miss vs North Carolina
Outback - Iowa vs South Carolina
Capital One - Georgia vs. Michigan State
Konica Minolta Gator - Wake Forest vs Notre Dame
AT&T Cotton - Oklahoma vs LSU
AutoZone Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt
International - Connecticut vs. Western Michigan
GMAC - East Carolina vs. Ball State
Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC
FedEx Orange - Florida State vs. Utah
Allstate Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Tostitos Fiesta - Texas vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship Game - Texas Tech vs. Florida
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Which teams are bowl eligible?
Now that we are mid-way through November's college football games, here's a look at which teams have enough wins to be eligible to play in a bowl game this season.
Bowl Eligible Teams through 11-8-2008
ACC - 8 teams eligible
FSU, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech
Big 12 - 7 teams eligible
Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big East - 5 teams eligible
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida
Big 10 -6 teams eligible
Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa
Conference USA - 3 teams eligible
East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice
Independents - 1 team eligible
Navy
MAC - 3 teams eligible
Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan
MWC - 4 teams eligible
BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force
Pac10 - 5 teams eligible
USC, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State
SEC - 6 teams eligible
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU
Sun Belt - 1 team eligible
Troy
WAC - 2 teams eligible
Boise State, San Jose State
For a complete list of bowl game matchups by conference, dates, times, and television coverage, check our 2008 bowl game schedule.
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What are the college football graduation rates?
The latest installment of the NCAA's Graduation Success Rate reports have been released for 2008.
The Graduation Success Rate measures how many players earned a four-year degree within a six-year window, accounting for both transfers into the footabll program as well as transfers out of the football program.
So how do the BCS schools stack up against one another? I'm glad you asked.
2008 NCAA Graduation Success Rate for BCS Football Programs
1. Notre Dame 94%
2. Stanford 93
T3. BC 92
T3. Duke 92
T3. Northwestern 92
6. Vanderbilt 91
7. Wake Forest 83
8. Texas Tech 79
T9. Baylor 78
T9. Nebraska 78
T9. UNC 78
T9. Penn State 78
T13. UConn 77
T13. Indiana 77
T15. Colorado 75
T15. Iowa 75
T15. Syracuse 75
T15. Virginia Tech 75
19. Cincinnati 73
T20. Illinois 70
T20. Michigan 70
T20. Miami 70
T20. Rutgers 70
24. Florida State 69
T25. Clemson 68
T25. Florida 68
T25. Maryland 68
T25. Wash State 68
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T29. Kansas State 67
T29. Pitt 67
31. Virginia 66
T32. South Carolina 65
T32. Washington 65
T34. Oregon State 64
T34. Ole Miss 63
T34. Miss State 63
T34. Purdue 63
T34. West Virginia 63
T34. Wisconsin 63
T40. Okla State 62
T40. UCLA 62
42. Arizona State 60
T43. N.C. State 59
T43. Missouri 59
45. Louisville 58
46. Auburn 57
T47. Kentucky 56
T47. Texas A&M 56
T47. South Florida 56
T50. Alabama 55
T50. Iowa State 55
T52. LSU 54
T52. Tennessee 54
T52. USC 54
T55. Cal 53
T55. Oregon 53
T55. Kansas 53
58. Ohio State 52
T58. Arkansas 52
T60. Minnesota 51
T60. Michigan State 51
62. Texas 50
T63. Georgia 48
T63. Georgia Tech 48
65. Oklahoma 46
66. Arizona 41
I wasn't surprised to see some of the finest academic institutions grabbing the top spots, but I was SHOCKED to see Texas Tech at #8. Kudos to the Red Raiders!
The average GSR scores of the six BCS conferences:
1. ACC........72.3
2. Big East...67.4
3. Big Ten....66
4. Big 12.....63.2
5. Pac-10.....61.3
6. SEC.........60.5
For all the blustering about the Pac10's high academic standards, I would have expected one of those standards to be.... graduation.
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Sagarin: SEC is the fourth best conference
Now that we are well into the midst of the conference schedules, it's time to take an updated look at Jeff's Sagarin's Conference ratings.
The following are updated through October 27, 2008:
1 BIG 12 (78.18)
2 BIG TEN (77.24)
3 ATLANTIC COAST (76.97)
4 SOUTHEASTERN (76.54)
5 PAC-10 (74.33)
6 BIG EAST (73.44)
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (70.27)
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (67.33)
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC (65.57)
10 MID-AMERICAN (65.18)
11 CONFERENCE USA (63.31)
12 SUN BELT (61.11)
A find a couple facets of the current rankings rather fascinating:
- The SEC is the fourth best conference, top-to-bottom? Seriously? The SEC is 20-7 out-of-conference against DI-A teams this year. Granted, three of those seven losses are to the ACC, but... the ACC returned the favor in losing three to the SEC. Sagarin has three SEC teams in his top ten, but the ACC gets the slight nod when you contrast the middle and bottom of each conference, which makes sense when you consider that there are... like... forty-seven teams tied for first in the ACC.
- Is another non-BCS blowout in the offing? Cinderella teams from the WAC (Boise State), Mountain West (Utah, TCU), MAC (Ball State), and C-USA (Tulsa) are all looking to qualify into a BCS bowl this year. Sagarin's ratings would seem to indicate that their resumes might be lacking if and when they get to the big stage.
- The BCS conferences are head-and-shoulders above the non-BCS conferences. The separation between the Big East and Mountain West is statically significant, and I don't think we've seen any rankings that dispute that designation in the last four years.
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Fans: Beware of Coaching Fatigue
Tommy Bowden - a coach who led his team to eight bowl games in nine seasons - has been fired at Clemson.
Despite seven wins against South Carolina and three straight wins against Florida State, Bowden is no longer the Tigers coach.
Despite holding the Clemson record for the highest scoring season, second highest scoring season, third highest scoring season and fourth highest scoring season in team history... Tommy's days have passed at CU.
While Bowden never won an ACC championship and never sniffed a BCS bowl appearance, he produced a winner on & off the field for Clemson.
But -- after ten years -- the Tiger faithful have grown tired of Tommy Bowden.
And that fatigue, writes Tony Barnhardt, is a dangerous thing in college football.
But to [Clemson, Auburn & Tennessee] and their fans I simply offer these words of caution: Be careful what you wish for because the wrong decision here can put you into the football wilderness for a very long time.
There is something going on in all three cases that transcends the number of football games the coach has won. For lack of a better term I call it Coaching Fatigue. In short, I think we have gotten to the point where it is irrelevant whether or not these men are good coaches.
There are a certain number of fans who simply want something different. After 10 years of Bowden and Tuberville and 16 years of Fulmer, some fans want change for the sake of change. They want something fresh and new. They are convinced that the next Nick Saban waiting by the phone.
There are cases where making a change has worked. Barnhardt cites Jim Donnan's transition.
Jim Donnan had won 40 games and four bowls in five years at Georgia but he struggled against the Bulldogs? top rivals. Mark Richt came in and Georgia has won two SEC championships and began this season ranked No. 1.
But, for every Mark Richt revival, there's Mike DuBose... and Dennis Franchione... and Mike Shula... and Joe Kines....
Barnhardt mentions the once mighty Nebraska, who still hasn't rebounded from firing a 9-win coach for fear of falling behind in the Big XII. Frank Solich was fired in 2003 and Nebraska has one nine games just once since then.
Spike Dykes, the old Texas Tech coach, once said that no matter how good a coach is, he loses about 10 percent of his support every year he is at a school. By that measure, the meter has run out on all three of these coaches.
But remember this: In football, as well as in politics, not all change is good. It could be that change is what is needed at Auburn and Tennessee because the support has eroded and cannot be rebuilt. But the administration at those schools had better get it right. It can get worse. Just ask Nebraska.
As Mr. College Football says... be careful what you wish for.
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