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  • Updated Bowl Game Projections

    OK, we've run down which teams are bowl eligible and which conferences have filled their bowl slots, so the only thing left to ponder are the updated bowl game projections.

    So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 8, 2008.

    Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule


    New Mexico Bowl - San Jose State vs Colorado State

    St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida vs Houston

    Pioneer Las Vegas - TCU vs Oregon

    Eagle Bank Bowl - Virginia vs Navy

    R+L Carriers New Orleans - Memphis vs Troy

    San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia - BYU vs Nevada

    Sheraton Hawaii - Hawaii vs Stanford

    Motor City - Central Michigan vs Illinois

    Meineke Car Care - Cincinnati vs Maryland

    Champs Sports - Virginia Tech vs Wisconsin

    Emerald - Arizona vs Miami

    Independence - Akron vs Florida International

    PapaJohns.com - West Virginia vs. Florida Atlantic

    Valero Alamo - Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

    Roady's Humanitarian - Boise State vs Boston College

    Texas - Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech

    Pacific Life Holiday - Cal vs. Missouri

    Bell Helicopter Armed Forces - Air Force vs Rice

    Brut Sun - Oregon State vs. Nebraska

    Gaylord Hotels Music City - Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

    Insight - Kansas vs. Northwestern

    Chick-fil-A - Ole Miss vs North Carolina

    Outback - Iowa vs South Carolina

    Capital One - Georgia vs. Michigan State

    Konica Minolta Gator - Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

    AT&T Cotton - Oklahoma vs LSU

    AutoZone Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt

    International - Connecticut vs. Western Michigan

    GMAC - East Carolina vs. Ball State

    Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC

    FedEx Orange - Florida State vs. Utah

    Allstate Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh

    Tostitos Fiesta - Texas vs. Ohio State

    BCS National Championship Game - Texas Tech vs. Florida

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  • Which teams are bowl eligible?

    Now that we are mid-way through November's college football games, here's a look at which teams have enough wins to be eligible to play in a bowl game this season.


    Bowl Eligible Teams through 11-8-2008




    ACC - 8 teams eligible
    FSU, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech

    Big 12 - 7 teams eligible
    Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

    Big East - 5 teams eligible
    Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida

    Big 10 -6 teams eligible
    Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa

    Conference USA - 3 teams eligible
    East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice

    Independents - 1 team eligible
    Navy

    MAC - 3 teams eligible
    Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan

    MWC - 4 teams eligible
    BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force

    Pac10 - 5 teams eligible
    USC, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State

    SEC - 6 teams eligible
    Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU

    Sun Belt - 1 team eligible
    Troy

    WAC - 2 teams eligible
    Boise State, San Jose State


    For a complete list of bowl game matchups by conference, dates, times, and television coverage, check our 2008 bowl game schedule.

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  • What are the college football graduation rates?

    The latest installment of the NCAA's Graduation Success Rate reports have been released for 2008.

    The Graduation Success Rate measures how many players earned a four-year degree within a six-year window, accounting for both transfers into the footabll program as well as transfers out of the football program.

    So how do the BCS schools stack up against one another? I'm glad you asked.


    2008 NCAA Graduation Success Rate for BCS Football Programs

    1. Notre Dame 94%
    2. Stanford 93
    T3. BC 92
    T3. Duke 92
    T3. Northwestern 92
    6. Vanderbilt 91
    7. Wake Forest 83
    8. Texas Tech 79
    T9. Baylor 78
    T9. Nebraska 78
    T9. UNC 78
    T9. Penn State 78
    T13. UConn 77
    T13. Indiana 77
    T15. Colorado 75
    T15. Iowa 75
    T15. Syracuse 75
    T15. Virginia Tech 75
    19. Cincinnati 73
    T20. Illinois 70
    T20. Michigan 70
    T20. Miami 70
    T20. Rutgers 70
    24. Florida State 69
    T25. Clemson 68
    T25. Florida 68
    T25. Maryland 68
    T25. Wash State 68
    .........................................
    T29. Kansas State 67
    T29. Pitt 67
    31. Virginia 66
    T32. South Carolina 65
    T32. Washington 65
    T34. Oregon State 64
    T34. Ole Miss 63
    T34. Miss State 63
    T34. Purdue 63
    T34. West Virginia 63
    T34. Wisconsin 63
    T40. Okla State 62
    T40. UCLA 62
    42. Arizona State 60
    T43. N.C. State 59
    T43. Missouri 59
    45. Louisville 58
    46. Auburn 57
    T47. Kentucky 56
    T47. Texas A&M 56
    T47. South Florida 56
    T50. Alabama 55
    T50. Iowa State 55
    T52. LSU 54
    T52. Tennessee 54
    T52. USC 54
    T55. Cal 53
    T55. Oregon 53
    T55. Kansas 53
    58. Ohio State 52
    T58. Arkansas 52
    T60. Minnesota 51
    T60. Michigan State 51
    62. Texas 50
    T63. Georgia 48
    T63. Georgia Tech 48
    65. Oklahoma 46
    66. Arizona 41


    I wasn't surprised to see some of the finest academic institutions grabbing the top spots, but I was SHOCKED to see Texas Tech at #8. Kudos to the Red Raiders!

    The average GSR scores of the six BCS conferences:

    1. ACC........72.3
    2. Big East...67.4
    3. Big Ten....66
    4. Big 12.....63.2
    5. Pac-10.....61.3
    6. SEC.........60.5


    For all the blustering about the Pac10's high academic standards, I would have expected one of those standards to be.... graduation.


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  • Sagarin: SEC is the fourth best conference

    Now that we are well into the midst of the conference schedules, it's time to take an updated look at Jeff's Sagarin's Conference ratings.

    The following are updated through October 27, 2008:


    1 BIG 12 (78.18)
    2 BIG TEN (77.24)
    3 ATLANTIC COAST (76.97)
    4 SOUTHEASTERN (76.54)
    5 PAC-10 (74.33)
    6 BIG EAST (73.44)
    7 MOUNTAIN WEST (70.27)
    8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (67.33)
    9 WESTERN ATHLETIC (65.57)
    10 MID-AMERICAN (65.18)
    11 CONFERENCE USA (63.31)
    12 SUN BELT (61.11)

    A find a couple facets of the current rankings rather fascinating:

    - The SEC is the fourth best conference, top-to-bottom? Seriously? The SEC is 20-7 out-of-conference against DI-A teams this year. Granted, three of those seven losses are to the ACC, but... the ACC returned the favor in losing three to the SEC. Sagarin has three SEC teams in his top ten, but the ACC gets the slight nod when you contrast the middle and bottom of each conference, which makes sense when you consider that there are... like... forty-seven teams tied for first in the ACC.

    - Is another non-BCS blowout in the offing? Cinderella teams from the WAC (Boise State), Mountain West (Utah, TCU), MAC (Ball State), and C-USA (Tulsa) are all looking to qualify into a BCS bowl this year. Sagarin's ratings would seem to indicate that their resumes might be lacking if and when they get to the big stage.

    - The BCS conferences are head-and-shoulders above the non-BCS conferences. The separation between the Big East and Mountain West is statically significant, and I don't think we've seen any rankings that dispute that designation in the last four years.

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  • Fans: Beware of Coaching Fatigue

    Tommy Bowden - a coach who led his team to eight bowl games in nine seasons - has been fired at Clemson.

    Despite seven wins against South Carolina and three straight wins against Florida State, Bowden is no longer the Tigers coach.

    Despite holding the Clemson record for the highest scoring season, second highest scoring season, third highest scoring season and fourth highest scoring season in team history... Tommy's days have passed at CU.

    While Bowden never won an ACC championship and never sniffed a BCS bowl appearance, he produced a winner on & off the field for Clemson.

    But -- after ten years -- the Tiger faithful have grown tired of Tommy Bowden.

    And that fatigue, writes Tony Barnhardt, is a dangerous thing in college football.

    But to [Clemson, Auburn & Tennessee] and their fans I simply offer these words of caution: Be careful what you wish for because the wrong decision here can put you into the football wilderness for a very long time.

    There is something going on in all three cases that transcends the number of football games the coach has won. For lack of a better term I call it Coaching Fatigue. In short, I think we have gotten to the point where it is irrelevant whether or not these men are good coaches.

    There are a certain number of fans who simply want something different. After 10 years of Bowden and Tuberville and 16 years of Fulmer, some fans want change for the sake of change. They want something fresh and new. They are convinced that the next Nick Saban waiting by the phone.

    There are cases where making a change has worked. Barnhardt cites Jim Donnan's transition.

    Jim Donnan had won 40 games and four bowls in five years at Georgia but he struggled against the Bulldogs? top rivals. Mark Richt came in and Georgia has won two SEC championships and began this season ranked No. 1.

    But, for every Mark Richt revival, there's Mike DuBose... and Dennis Franchione... and Mike Shula... and Joe Kines....

    Barnhardt mentions the once mighty Nebraska, who still hasn't rebounded from firing a 9-win coach for fear of falling behind in the Big XII. Frank Solich was fired in 2003 and Nebraska has one nine games just once since then.

    Spike Dykes, the old Texas Tech coach, once said that no matter how good a coach is, he loses about 10 percent of his support every year he is at a school. By that measure, the meter has run out on all three of these coaches.

    But remember this: In football, as well as in politics, not all change is good. It could be that change is what is needed at Auburn and Tennessee because the support has eroded and cannot be rebuilt. But the administration at those schools had better get it right. It can get worse. Just ask Nebraska.

    As Mr. College Football says... be careful what you wish for.

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Copyright 1996-2008 by Derek Gwinn

UK Classes of 1994 and 1995